Red Alert, de opties van het Egyptische leger
Donderdag 10 februari 2011
bron: stratfor.com
Nadat Mubarak heeft geweigerd om af te treden heeft het
Egyptische leger nog 3 mogelijkheden over: Het volk het
paleis laten bestormen, het volk tegenhouden of zelf een
coup plegen. Volgens de geopolitische site STRATFOR is de
derde optie op dit moment redelijk aannemelijk. Volgens
stratfor.com zal het leger in de vrijdagnacht gaan beslissen
wat het gaat doen.
The decision by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak not to
resign seems to have shocked both the Egyptian military and
Washington. CIA Director Leon Panetta spoke earlier as if
his resignation was assured and a resolution to the crisis
was guaranteed. Sources in Cairo spoke the same way. How the
deal came apart, or whether Mubarak decided that
transferring power to Vice President Omar Suleiman was
sufficient cannot be known. What is known is that Mubarak
did not do what was expected.
This now creates a massive crisis for the Egyptian military.
Its goal is not to save Mubarak but to save the regime
founded by Gamal Abdel Nasser. We are now less than six
hours from dawn in Cairo. The military faces three choices.
The first is to stand back, allow the crowds to swell and
likely march to the presidential palace and perhaps enter
the grounds. The second choice is to move troops and armor
into position to block more demonstrators from entering
Tahrir Square and keep those in the square in place. The
third is to stage a coup and overthrow Mubarak.
The first strategy opens the door to regime change as the
crowd, not the military, determines the course of events.
The second creates the possibility of the military firing on
the protesters, which have not been anti-military to this
point. Clashes with the military (as opposed to the police,
which have happened) would undermine the military’s desire
to preserve the regime and the perception of the military as
not hostile to the public.
That leaves the third option, which is a coup. Mubarak will
be leaving office under any circumstances by September. The
military does not want an extraconstitutional action, but
Mubarak’s decision leaves the military in the position of
taking one of the first two courses, which is unacceptable.
That means military action to unseat Mubarak as the
remaining choice.
One thing that must be borne in mind is that whatever action
is taken must be taken in the next six or seven hours. As
dawn breaks over Cairo, it is likely that large numbers of
others will join the demonstrators and that the crowd might
begin to move. The military would then be forced to stand
back and let events go where they go, or fire on the
demonstrators. Indeed, in order to do the latter, troops and
armor must move into position now, to possibly overawe the
demonstrators.
Thus far, the military has avoided confrontation with the
demonstrators as much as possible, and the demonstrators
have expressed affection toward the army. To continue that
policy, and to deal with Mubarak, the options are removing
him from office in the next few hours or possibly losing
control of the situation. But if this is the choice taken,
it must be taken tonight so that it can be announced before
demonstrations get under way Feb. 11 after Friday prayers.
It is of course possible that the crowds, reflecting on
Mubarak’s willingness to cede power to Suleiman, may end the
crisis, but it does not appear that way at the moment, and
therefore the Egyptian military has some choices to make.
bron: stratfor.com